June 1 update (9 → 10): [FACT] 32,531 people booked into detention in March 2026. Collateral arrests over 50% in D.C. Operations confirmed as routine and widespread.

September 9 update (10 → 11): [FACT] Monthly arrests nearly doubled from March to August — from 32,531 to 50,925. ICE is averaging 1,600 arrests per day. Over 300,000 arrests in the first eight months of 2026. Two immigrants killed during enforcement traffic stops in July. A nun arrested walking to church in Texas. An Alaska state attorney arrested. ICE awarded $16.7M for shock gloves. DHS banned undocumented people from domestic flights. 12,000 new agents hired. [ANALYSIS] For comparison, ICE arrested 74,000 people in all of fiscal year 2021. The current pace would reach over 600,000 in 2026 — more than eight times that level. Arrests are no longer limited to homes and workplaces — they are happening at airports, courthouses, and scheduled check-ins. [SIGNAL] When enforcement reaches people who are legally present, people in churches and courthouses, and people are being killed during routine stops — the system has moved beyond targeted enforcement into something broader.

June 29 update (8 → 9): [FACT] TPS ended and declared unreviewable. Metering upheld. Score moved to maximum.

September 9 — counter-signal noted: [FACT] On June 30, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the Constitution guarantees birthright citizenship to virtually all children born in the U.S. Chief Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion. The president's executive order was struck down as unconstitutional. [ANALYSIS] This is the first major ruling against the administration's immigration agenda at the Supreme Court level. It proves that the court can and will block executive action on core constitutional questions — even while it rules in the administration's favor on other immigration issues. [SIGNAL] The score stays at 9/9 because TPS termination and metering are still in full effect. But this ruling is the most significant positive signal the tracker has recorded. The courts are not fully captured. The Constitution held on this one.

May 28 update (6 → 7): [FACT] Multiple federal judges documented in writing that the administration is ignoring their rulings. [ANALYSIS] Courts themselves described this as a broader strategy, not isolated cases.

September 14 update (7 → 8): [FACT] On June 29, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Trump v. Slaughter that the president can fire members of independent agencies at will, without needing cause. This overturns 91 years of precedent set by Humphrey's Executor v. U.S. (1935). The ruling endorses the "unitary executive theory" — the idea that the president should have total control over the entire executive branch. Days after the ruling, Trump fired Election Assistance Commission members. Justice Jackson wrote in dissent that the court was contorting the law so the president "always wins." [ANALYSIS] This is not defiance of courts — this is the courts giving the president more power. The independence of agencies like the FTC, SEC, and potentially the Federal Reserve is now in question. [SIGNAL] When independent agencies lose their independence, the president controls enforcement of financial rules, election oversight, consumer protection, and market regulation. That concentration of power in one person is one of the clearest markers in the historical record of democratic backsliding.

May 19 update (4 → 5): [FACT] The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to weaken a law used to challenge voting maps that make it harder for certain groups to elect the representatives they choose (Louisiana v. Callais). The court acted quickly — skipping its normal waiting period — to let states redraw maps before the 2026 elections. Between 12 and 19 voting districts where Black or Latino voters are the majority are now at risk of being redrawn. [ANALYSIS] This makes it harder for these communities to challenge maps that reduce their voting power in court. [SIGNAL] Historically, reducing the ability of certain groups to vote or be represented has been an early sign of democratic backsliding in other countries.

May 11 update (4 → 5): [FACT] The Supreme Court used its fast-track process to allow expanded immigration stops in Los Angeles while a legal challenge was still ongoing. Three justices said in writing that the conditions of those stops could lead to people being stopped based on how they look, speak, and what work they appear to do. [ANALYSIS] Multiple justices have now said the fast-track process is being used to give the government more power with less review. Courts are still blocking many government actions. Score holds at 5/6.

June 1 correction: A previous update incorrectly cited the DOJ lawsuit against Maryland federal judges as a new June 2026 development. [FACT] That lawsuit was filed in June 2025 and dismissed in August 2025 by a Trump-appointed judge who wrote the executive branch "must find a proper way to raise those concerns." The case was then filed to be dismissed as moot in January 2026. It does not support a score increase. Score holds at 5/6.

June 1 update (1 → 2): [FACT] Trump signed an executive order on May 20, 2026 directing banks to flag immigration status as a financial risk. The order stops short of requiring citizenship checks for every account — but it directs regulators to issue guidance within 60 days on "red flags" tied to immigration status. The SBA 7(a) small business loan ban for all noncitizens including permanent residents is already in effect. The CFPB advisory protecting immigrants from immigration-based discrimination in credit decisions was withdrawn. [ANALYSIS] These are not restrictions on moving money out of the country. But they change who can access financial services based on immigration status — which disproportionately affects people who pay taxes and contribute to the economy. [SIGNAL] Historically, restricting financial access by identity category precedes broader financial control measures.

Current read (May 4, 2026): Moved to 3/5. Americans are now the largest group applying for foreign citizenship globally — up 75% in 2025. Source note: the company reporting this data makes money by helping people get foreign citizenship. Treat as a general trend only. We also check U.S. Treasury data and international financial press to confirm the direction.